Analyitics

Thursday, June 16, 2011

If a Great Game was Pitched and No One Watched, Did it Really Happen?

As Joel noted in the comments, Josh Beckett continued his amazing return to form yesterday by pitching a one-hit, 97 pitch CG shutout against the Rays last night. And all of Boston - including Eric and myself, were tuned in to an incredible hockey game where the Bruins and Conn Smythe winner Tim Thomas simply broke the will of the Vancouver Canucks to take home the Stanley Cup.

Hope Beckett can repeat on this performance! I was surprised to learn that "the fewest hits he had ever allowed previously in a complete game was three and he had done that just once." Given how dominant he can be - in '07 in particular - I had expected him to come closer to a perfect game, but there are just so many variables involved. I mean, Pedro Martinez never had a complete game and he's the best pitcher i've ever seen.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

The keys to life

"I feel very, very confident that the keys to life for me are reading and running." - Will Smith.

Now we just need to get that man a Red Sox cap.

Monday, June 13, 2011

Cool weather

For the past several weeks, the thermometers in DC have all been stuck north of 90 degrees. I've been pushing my way through long runs and short runs, but my pace never seems to improve.

Today, though, a cool breeze blew into town and by the time I arrived home, the temperature was in the low 70s. Even though I was still sore from my 18-mile run this weekend, there was no way I was going to stay inside. So, I went out and ran 5.5 miles at an 8:42 pace.

I know that doesn't seem so fast to y'all, so let me put it in context. Prior to today, the fastest pace I've ever maintained for longer than 5 miles is 9:13. My fastest 3 miles was only at a 8:45 pace.

Unlike Eric, I find running in the heat to be very tough. But it seems to be doing wonders for my conditioning. I'm looking forward to seeing what my times are like come November.


Running and Character

Due to illness, insomnia and extreme readability, I’m already halfway through Born to Run. The thing that has stood out to me so far - other than the sheer awesomeness of the story - is the emphasis on the personality traits that make up a better runner. Evidence includes the story of Emil Zatopek starting on p.95, or the antidotes about Coach Vigil:
Posted on the wall of Vigil’s office was a magic formula for fast running that, as far as Deena could tell, had absolutely nothing to do with running: it was stuff like “Practice abundance by giving back,” and “Improve personal relationships,” and “Show integrity to your value system." p.119
or
Over the previous two years, Vigil had become convinced that the next leap forward in human endurance would come from a dimension he dreaded getting itno: Character. … Vigil wasn’t talking about “grit” or “hunger” or “the size of the fight in the dog.” In fact, he meant the exact opposite. Vigil’s notion of character wasn’t toughness. It was compassion. Kindness. Love. p.92
I’m looking forward to where this all leads, but from a book that I expected to hear more about form than psychology, this angle was a pleasant surprise.

Run Support

The AL and the NL each now have one pitcher who has won nine games. Over in the NL, it's Roy Halladay, who has managed the feat by pitching lights-out -- he currently has a 2.39 ERA. Here in the AL, it is Jon Lester who has done it by pitching only slightly better than the league average. So what is his secret? Run support.

For every nine innings that Lester pitches, the Red Sox score 9.77 runs. Insane. Among qualified pitchers, that's the second best run support in the major leagues.*

Here are the run support stats for the entire rotation. 2011 numbers are first, followed by full-season 2010 numbers in parentheses:

Lester -9.77 (6.88)
Lackey - 8.12 (7.07)
Buchholz - 6.37 (6.79)
Wakefield - 5.77 (5.45)
Beckett - 5.75 (7.67)

While Lester's run support is up, Beckett's run support is down. A lot. (Though even so it is only just slightly below the median figure --5.77 -- for all qualified big league pitchers.) Perhaps he is just so dominant that our hitters figure they can take things easy when he's on the mound.

On the other hand, the Sox have never given Wakefield that much support, which makes his accomplishments that much more impressive.


* "Qualified pitchers" are those that have pitched an average of at least one inning for every game their team has played, i.e., the "qualified pitchers" on the Red Sox staff are those that have pitched at least 65 innings. The run support leader among all qualified pitchers in the big leagues is Jake Arrieta of the Baltimore Orioles, whose run support is at 9.79, just the tiniest sliver above Lester's. Despite Jake's 4.48 ERA, he is already an 8-game winner.


Saturday, June 11, 2011

First Lines of "Born to Run"

For days, I'd been searching Mexico's Sierra Madre for the phantom known as Caballo Blanco--the White Horse. I'd finally arrived at the end of the trail, in the last place I expected to find him--not deep in the wilderness he was said to haunt, but in the dim lobby of an old hotel on the edge of a dusty desert town.
- Christopher McDougall, Born to Run

Reading and Running collide! I finally broke down and bought this book - the paperback, not on the Kindle - and am eagerly anticipating getting deep into it. I'll let you know what I think!

Friday, June 10, 2011

Sweep!

I missed last night's game due to damned mother nature and her 3.5 hour rain delays, but a sweep is a sweep - and one against the Yankees is that much sweeter. Despite all of this team's shortcomings over the season so far - disappointing starting pitching, slow starts for key players (CarlCrawford, Yooook, Pedroia), bullpen inconsistency - this is now a team with the best record in the AL and in first place in the AL East. It's fixing to be a fun summer!