Best. Headline. Ever.

While I've enjoyed the moonshots and hot streaks as much as the next person, I can't say that I've ever been a huge Mike Napoli fan. However, that all changed this weekend:

Mike Napoli drunk, shirtless on the streets of Boston

You have to click through for the pictures. Priceless.

Mike Napoli with runners in scoring position

The batting average of most major leaguers is a few ticks higher when runners are on base than when the bases are empty.  That is to be expected.  When a runner is on base, the pitcher will be more worried about issuing walks, and so is more likely to throw balls down the center of the plate.  The pitcher may also be distracted by the threat of a stolen base, or may be worrying about what went wrong during the last at bat.  The very fact that there are runners are on base may simply indicate that the pitcher is starting to tire.  And, with the chance to knock in a few runs, the batter may be just a little more focused. 

Or, in Mike Napoli's case, a whole lot more focused.  With bases empty he is hitting a paltry 0.194.  That's the kind of batting average that earns you a date with the bench.  But when there are runners on base, he is hitting 0.333.  But wait, there's more!  With runners in scoring position, he is hitting a monstrous 0.370.  And with bases loaded, he is hitting a monstrous 0.667.

If I didn't know better, I'd say Napoli's is an RBI machine, an absolute clutch player.  

But I do know better: there is absolutely no statistical correlation between past clutch performance and future clutch performance in baseball. 

(If all the players in the major leagues were asked to flip a coin five times in a row, there are surely several who would get heads all five times.  Does that mean those players are really good at flipping heads?  Nope; on the sixth flip they are just as likely to flip tails as anyone else.  Similarly, statistics show that players who exhibit "clutch" hitting over a week or a month or a season are no more likely to continue being "clutch" than anyone else.)

So, don't get your expectations too high because of Napoli's early season exploits, and don't get too disappointed when he looks decidedly more average come the summer.  Just enjoy the ride.

Why Mike Napoli?

Like many of you, i've been a bit perplexed about why the Sox have been showing such interest in Mike Napoli. After all, he's on the wrong side of 30 and only hit .227 last year with just a .343 OPS. Doesn't seem to make sense for a rebuilding team. However, Alex Speer at WEEI explains the rationale. The whole thing is worth reading, but here's the money quote:

"...Napoli represents a perfect storm when it comes to the Sox’ interest in pursuing a competitive team for 2013 that doesn't impair the team’s long-term outlook. As a first baseman, he plays the position of greatest need in the Sox organization. Signing him to a multi-year deal likely wouldn't block the progress of anyone in the Sox system for at least a couple years. And as a player who won’t cost a signing team a draft pick, he represents a way of addressing a key shortcoming of the Sox without impairing the team’s ability to continue to accumulate prospects."