A Lost Sox Weekend

As usual, Joy of Sox puts things in perspective for us:

"Losing three games - two of them by only one run - to the powerhouse-hitting team many people think will steamroll to the World Series? This is making Red Sox fans panic? ...
It was a bad three games, I agree. Sunday's game was particularly horrific. ...
This has many fans demanding that Daniel Bard be yanked from the rotation before he has made even one start and plugged back into the bullpen. But that would be a mistake and a clear sign that the front office has abandoned the philosophy that brought them two World Series championships after an 86-year drought. It would show that the team is taking the short view and looking at only the recent games when making important decisions. You don't base team decisions on two games worth of data."

And also: "My advice to you: stay away from all Boston media until further notice."

Joel made some similar points here. I only caught a little of G3 (the odds of me catching any weekend or day games are slim to none) and my only comment is that Aceves didn't look like the same pitcher he was last year. Of course, I suspect the Tigers will make many pitchers look bad. My bigger concern is Josh Beckett: we have enough concerns with our starting rotation to have Beckett not pitch up to his capabilities.

Regardless, let's see what happens in the next few series before declaring all is lost. Time to kick some Blue Jay ass! (But please, please, stay away from Bautista.)

Quote of the Day

Don't know much about Nick Punto, whom the Sox just signed to a two-year deal, but I got a kick out of this at the Joy of Sox:

"He gives you a good at-bat" is what you say when a player stays up there for eight pitches or so but finally makes an out. He saw some pitches, and maybe the pitcher worked a touch more than usual, but Punto has no power, so he's not gonna dong ... and anyway, it's still an out. It's the baseball equivalent of "She's got a nice personality".

it's not a popular signing on the blogs I read.

There's also some good quotes at the link about Bard's becoming a closer.

Related Posts:
Our Next Closer?

Red Sox tender offers

The Red Sox roster is starting to take shape.   Last night, the team signed reliever Matt Albers to a one-year contract, and tendered contract offers to pitchers Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Franklin Morales, as well as position players Mike Aviles, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

"Tendered" contracts offers?  Does that mean these players now have signed contracts?  Well, not exactly. 

Many of the players on the Red Sox have signed contracts that through 2012 or beyond.  You know the names:  Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, John Lackey. 

But others don't.  And if the team doesn't make (or "tender") an offer to them before the tender deadline (generally in the second week of December), they become free agents.

With regard to some players, it is a no-brainer to offer them contracts.  For instance, playes with fewer than three years of service (with certain exceptions) generally don't have options other than to accept a low contract offer.

But then there are other players who have previously had low contracts, but have now become eligible for arbitration.  The way arbitration works is like this.  The team and the player each submit a one-year salary offer to the arbitrator.  The arbitrator then chooses one of two salary offers, based on which one is closes to the salaries of other players with similar abilities and playing time.  That means, the team can't afford to lowball their offer too much, or the arbitrator will pick the player's salary offer instead (which likely will be for more than what the player is worth.)

Almost certainly, players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Daniel Bard are going to see huge bumps in their salaries through the salary arbitration process -- and rightly so.  The Red Sox won't know how much until the arbitration process is complete, but for now, the Sox have committed to keep them around.

The one player who (probably) won't be around is reliever Rich Hill.  He wasn't tendered an offer, and so will became a free agent.  Apparently, the Sox were not confident that he would be able to come back from his Tommy John surgery on June 9.

Now, it's time for the Red Sox to look around for players from other teams who weren't tendered offers, and have become free agents.  Joe Saunders, anyone?

Our Next Closer?

Word comes from the winter meetings that the Sox are interested in A’s closer Andrew Bailey. Combine this with a rumor I read elsewhere (can't remember where) that Bard would prefer to be a starter than a closer and I think the Sox may try converting Bard and hope to piece together an acceptable bullpen with different pieces. Of course, they'll probably have to give up some pieces in order to get Bailey, so the scene continues to shift.

Not sure how I feel about this yet. As i've said before, my opinion with Bard is that while we do need another starter, why mess with a good thing - he's probably the best setup man in the game.

Papelbon to the Phillies

Last week, rumors began circulating that Papelbon was interviewing with the Phillies.  At the time, it seemed like nothing to worry about.  The Phillies were close to reaching a deal with their own free agent closer, Ryan Madson (2011 ERA: 2.37).  But, when that 4-year, $44 million deal fell apart, the Phillies grabbed Papelbon instead, for 4 years and nearly $50 million.

The Sox had been paying Papelbon $12 million/year, but evidently weren't confident that he would be worth that much on into the future.  And with good reason: star closers often often decline dramatically once they reach their 30's.  Just ask the Twins how Joe Nathan has worked out after the re-signed him for four more years in 2008.  Or, ask the Mets about Billy Wagner.  There just aren't many arms that have the durability of Mariano Rivera's.

It's fair to ask what the Red Sox are going to do with that $12 million per year.  Will they seek out another closer?  Ryan Madson's on the market.  There are also a number of older former closers on the market who might be able to fill in for a year or two.  The 34-year old Brad Lidge, in particular, just had an outstanding year in the bullpen for the Phillies (regular season ERA: 1.40) and would probably welcome the chance to close again.

More likely, the Sox will hand the ball to Bard, who certainly would welcome the opportunity.  Aceves, then, might become his primary setup man, assuming the Sox don't want to make him a starter.  And the Red Sox will go out and spend $12 million on . . . who knows?

In his six-plus years with the Sox, Papelbon pitched 429-1/3 innings and struck out 509 batters, compiling a 2.33 ERA.  His best season was his rookie year, when he posted a 0.92 ERA.  In each of his six full years as a closer, he earned more than 30 saves.  In fact, he was the fastest pitcher in MLB history to reach 200 career saves.  Of course, this is partly due to the fact that the Sox have been an extremely capable team over that entire period.  You can only get saves when your team is ahead in games  But, Papelbon has also been very durable.  As far as I can recall, his only significant injury was in September of 2006.

It's not all been fun and games, though.  While much is made of Papelbon's competitiveness, his ERA against the dreaded Yankees is a mediocre 3.86.  However, he more than made up for it by shutting down Texas (ERA: 0.40) and Anaheim (ERA: 1.16) and Tampa Bay (ERA: 2.01).  2010 was a rough year (ERA: 3.90), and in the last game of 2011 he gave up the run that shut the door on the post-season.

Overall, though, the memories are very good.  As much as his pitching, we'll miss his antics, on and off the field.  If there is a bright side to this news, it that the ninth inning should now start to go a little quicker.

Related posts:
The Awesomeness of the Bard
Bedard and Closers

Bard as Starter

In another good post-mordem article about the 2011 Red Sox, Chad Finn openly ponders moving Bard to a starting role. And makes a good point for doing so:

While keeping in mind that he'd probably pace himself more in the rotation -- at his best, he can come in and let it fly Gossage-style in his current role -- his career numbers right now look like one extremely impressive season for a starting pitcher: 197 innings, 132 hits, 76 walks, 213 strikeouts, 1.06 WHIP, 2.88 ERA.

I think we may have talked about this before, but i'd be a bit scared to move Bard to a starter. Tossing that fastball up to 100 times a start seems like a recipe for disaster. But we certainly need starting pitching - it would be easier to replace him as a reliever than it would be to go out and get another quality starter.

The Awesomeness of the Bard

So I knew that Bard was pitching lights out recently. What I didn't know was just how good he's been:

[Bard has] allowed a grand total of seven runs in 47 innings, including a Red Sox-record 21 straight scoreless appearances dating all the way back to May 23. ...That stretch includes 22.2 scoreless innings, during which time opponents have batted just .108 with one extra-base hit against Bard and he’s lowered his ERA from 3.65 to 1.90.

That's pretty awesome, and more food for the "Bard will be the closer next year" assumption that most Sox observers preach. However, I found this article interesting in that it presents an interesting scenario in which the Sox would sign Papelbon to an extension. Money quote:

Brian MacPherson's... thinking: there are a lot of relief pitchers who will be available this winter, which could depress Papelbon’s asking price on the open market. At the same time, Papelbon has been really good this year, reminding the Sox of just what they’ve had and what they might miss.

I don't really buy it, mainly because I still think Paps will demand more money than his performance really dictates, but it does seem foolish to let go of a decent reliever knowing how hard it is to find good ones out there.