I Knew Someone Would

There hasn't been a lot of Red Sox talk around here lately because, quite honestly, we're all just enjoying the ride! I'm still having a hard time believing how good the Red Sox look, and in awe of how fun - and tense! - the series against Detroit was. This team is something special and i'm really looking to see how they perform against what sounds like a very solid Cardinals team.

And not to take away from anything, but I am curious about some of the decisions that Farrell has made recently. Admitably, most of them have worked, but here's what i've been wondering:

• What horrible thing did Daniel Nava do to Farrell's dog to deserve being benched for a steady diet of Gomes in the playoffs? What happened to their effective regular season platoon? Please tell me it's not because Nava's beard pales in comparison...
• He seems to have learned his lesson, but why did he stick with WMB so long when he had the remarkably patient Xander Bogaerts available? Bogaerts performance this postseason reminds me a bit of Ellsbury in '07 - he seems mature beyond his years. (And did you know he's from Aruba?)
• Why is he pitching anyone other than Breslow, Koji, and occasionally Tazawa in relief? Watching Morales the other night was painful in the extreme. Again, I shouldn't criticize because he had the stones to pitch Tazawa's heat against Cabrera in game three - when the dominant Koji was sitting there! - and it worked beautifully.

Regardless of those quibbles, that Tigers series was unlike anything I've watched. These games were tense from start to finish, and filled with dominant pitching. I believe both teams set team records for playoff strikeouts, and other than the amazing, series-turning Grand Slam, Senior Octobre Ortiz did not actually hit well. But somehow despite it all I truly never got horribly nervous once Ortiz hit his huge HR. The team just seems to pull things out in the end, as their incredible 11 walkoff wins attest. Chad Finn, in his excellent post on Game 6 of the ACLS, encapsulated it well by quoting "...Brandon Workman's perfect postgame summation of how this team sees each other: "I didn't know who was going to step up. But I knew someone would." Looking forward to seeing who's going to step up in the World Series.

Three Baseball Predictions

Now that the regular season has wrapped, we can start turning our interest not towards next year, as we have in years past, but towards the POST-SEASON!  I, for one, am quite excited, as every win feels like upside after last year, and every game builds the hope.  Unfortunately, we have to wait until Friday to see the Sox play their first post-season game.  In the meantime, I'll make 3 predictions about roster changes involving the Sox and/or Yankees for next year:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury will sign with the Yankees.  

2. Robinson Cano will not sign with the Yankees or the Red Sox.

3. Curtis Granderson will sign with the Red Sox.

I don't think the Sox will cough up the money Boras is going to ask for (for Ellsbury) and I think the Yankees will.  Granderson will likely sign a short term, highly-paying contract with the Sox to fill the CF role as the Yankees shift their focus to Ellsbury.  I think Cano wants out of New York and that the Sox won't want to offer him a contract long enough for his liking.  Some other team will add this massive weapon to their roster and possibly make him the highest paid baseball player of all time.

Red Sox tender offers

The Red Sox roster is starting to take shape.   Last night, the team signed reliever Matt Albers to a one-year contract, and tendered contract offers to pitchers Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Franklin Morales, as well as position players Mike Aviles, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

"Tendered" contracts offers?  Does that mean these players now have signed contracts?  Well, not exactly. 

Many of the players on the Red Sox have signed contracts that through 2012 or beyond.  You know the names:  Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, John Lackey. 

But others don't.  And if the team doesn't make (or "tender") an offer to them before the tender deadline (generally in the second week of December), they become free agents.

With regard to some players, it is a no-brainer to offer them contracts.  For instance, playes with fewer than three years of service (with certain exceptions) generally don't have options other than to accept a low contract offer.

But then there are other players who have previously had low contracts, but have now become eligible for arbitration.  The way arbitration works is like this.  The team and the player each submit a one-year salary offer to the arbitrator.  The arbitrator then chooses one of two salary offers, based on which one is closes to the salaries of other players with similar abilities and playing time.  That means, the team can't afford to lowball their offer too much, or the arbitrator will pick the player's salary offer instead (which likely will be for more than what the player is worth.)

Almost certainly, players like Jacoby Ellsbury and Daniel Bard are going to see huge bumps in their salaries through the salary arbitration process -- and rightly so.  The Red Sox won't know how much until the arbitration process is complete, but for now, the Sox have committed to keep them around.

The one player who (probably) won't be around is reliever Rich Hill.  He wasn't tendered an offer, and so will became a free agent.  Apparently, the Sox were not confident that he would be able to come back from his Tommy John surgery on June 9.

Now, it's time for the Red Sox to look around for players from other teams who weren't tendered offers, and have become free agents.  Joe Saunders, anyone?

American League MVP

And the winner is . . . Justin Verlander.

It was a very close vote.  Verlander received 280 points, while Jacoby Ellsbury received 242 points, coming in second.  Jose Bautista, who looked like a lock at mid-season, ended up with 231 points.

Compare that to 2010, when the winner (Josh Hamilton) received 358 points, or to 2009, when the winner (Joe Mauer) received 387 points.  In fact, the voting hasn't been this close since 2003, when Alex Rodriguez, who was still in Texas, edged out Carlos Delgado.

I suspect that it was a career year for Ellsbury, and we should not expect quite the same electricity in years to come.  But I hope he will prove me wrong.

Congratulations also to Dustin Pedroia, who received 48 points and came in 9th. 

David Ortiz, who looked like a vote getter until late in the season, ended up without any points at all, which seems like a travesty considering that Alex Gordon, Asdrubal Cabrera and Ben Zobrist each ended up with a handful. 

The full results are at Baseball Reference.

Related posts:
Golden Gloves
Ellsbury's RBIs

Golden Gloves

For the first time since 1979, a trio of Red Sox players have taken home Gold Glove awards: Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Dustin Pedroia (2B) and Jacoby Ellsbury (RF). 

It's no coincidence that each of the three has also been talked about as a possible MVP candidate.  They should look back on their personal accomplishments in 2011 with pride.

This is Why They Play the Games

Remember those odds I was posting on the Red Sox making the post season? Turns out someone summarized them all on a graph for us to "enjoy."

Really does put this epic collapse in perspective. An all-around choke, this one.

And that'll be my last writing on the Sox for a bit methinks. I'd like to put down my thoughts on what to do in the offseason but it's just too soon. For now, my immediate reaction is that the only people I'd keep without a doubt are Ellsbury, Pedroia, Aceves, Francona, and (surprisingly) Scutaro.

Ellsbury

Congratulations to Ellsbury! The celebration at the plate last night was well deserved.

A lot of fan sites, including Joy of Sox and others, are reciting a stat that the last Red Sox player to deliver a walkoff RBI hit on consecutive days was Butch Hobson on Aug. 27-28, 1978. Sounds good, but . . . .

How are these fans forgetting October 2004?

On October 17, 2004, with the Sox down three games to zero against the Yankees in the ALCS, Big Papi hit a walkoff home run in the 12th inning. On October 18, in the fourteenth inning, he drove in Johnny Damon for the game winning RBI.

In any case, I'm glad to see Ellsbury following in Ortiz's (very large) footsteps!

Historically Good

I knew that the Red Sox lineup was amazing, but this fact is incredible:

Each of the top five hitters in the Red Sox lineup has an OPS over .865:

Jacoby Ellsbury .911
Dustin Pedroia .893
Adrian Gonzalez .973
Kevin Youkilis .890
David Ortiz .960

The rest of the American League combined has five.

Jose Bautista Blue Jays 1.138
Miguel Cabrera Tigers .986
Paul Konerko White Sox .935
Curtis Granderon Yankees .930
Jhonny Peralta Tigers .901

Hello!

Two friends of mine spend a lot of time thinking about and writing each other regarding reading, running, and the Red Sox. Free free to share along with us!

A brief introduction from me about the three topics:

- Reading. I have an eclectic taste in books, preferring fiction leaning towards the fantastical and thought provoking. Favorite author: Thomas Pynchon. Books i'm reading right now: Out Stealing Horses by Per Patterson, Jitterbug Perfume by Tom Robbins, and Finder by Carla Speed McNeil.

- Running. After a long hiatus as an occasional runner sporting 20 extra pounds, I'm now really getting back into pounding the pavement. I typically run around Framingham and Ashland MA, focusing on competing in 5Ks, although am practicing to run in more 10Ks. Dreaming of a marathon someday, but i'm not there yet.

- Red Sox. Not sure what to say about the Sox this season, so i'll share a few random observations I hope to expand upon in the near future. 1) Jacoby Ellsbury is suprisingly good this season. It's looking like Theo will regret not showing him the money. 2) When the Sox signed Carl Crawford, all I heard about was his speed, but all I see from him in the outfield is him jogging towards fly balls landing softly in front of him. 3) I love them as much as you do, but Wake and Tek are done. The lack of a better catching plan was the biggest flaw in this offseason, even more so given that Victor Martinez was in the house. 4) Dustin Pedroia batting is assignment television. I'm still recovering from his 10 minute at bat against Weaver last Monday night. 5) I'm still not sure how such a talented group of players isn't above 500 yet.

So there you go. Much more to come, hopefully. As for the others, I hope they'll be joining me soon. If you're anything like me, you'll be interested in what they have to say.

Cheers!