Three Baseball Predictions

Now that the regular season has wrapped, we can start turning our interest not towards next year, as we have in years past, but towards the POST-SEASON!  I, for one, am quite excited, as every win feels like upside after last year, and every game builds the hope.  Unfortunately, we have to wait until Friday to see the Sox play their first post-season game.  In the meantime, I'll make 3 predictions about roster changes involving the Sox and/or Yankees for next year:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury will sign with the Yankees.  

2. Robinson Cano will not sign with the Yankees or the Red Sox.

3. Curtis Granderson will sign with the Red Sox.

I don't think the Sox will cough up the money Boras is going to ask for (for Ellsbury) and I think the Yankees will.  Granderson will likely sign a short term, highly-paying contract with the Sox to fill the CF role as the Yankees shift their focus to Ellsbury.  I think Cano wants out of New York and that the Sox won't want to offer him a contract long enough for his liking.  Some other team will add this massive weapon to their roster and possibly make him the highest paid baseball player of all time.

Book Review: China Miéville's "Railsea"

Imagine… a world… where oceans…. don’t exist. In their place are deserts covered with massive amounts of train tracks twisting every which way – a maze of tracks spanning the majority of the globe. Welcome to Railsea, a fantastic yarn by everyone’s favorite New Weird author China Miéville.

At its core, Railsea depicts the quest of Abacat Naphi, the captain of the “mole train” Medes, who is in obsessive pursuit of an ivory-colored “moldywarpe” (think monstrously large mole).  But it’s also a coming-of-age story of Sham ap Soorap, who starts off as an inept doctor’s assistant but through a combination of luck and self-growth finds himself at the center of a race to the edges of the Railsea in pursuit of mythical lands – and treasure! It’s a compelling story that blatantly lifts ideas from other books – the captain’s quest is from Moby Dick, the abandoned alien tech (called alt-salvage) that litters the landscape is from the Strugatsky Brothers’ Roadside Picnic, etc.) – so creatively that the story never feels derivative or uninspired. In fact, with only one or two exceptions I didn't know what was going to happen next, a rare quality that makes all of his books extremely compelling.

I’m told that it’s a YA novel, a relatively meaningless distinction but does explain the (pre?) teen narrator and lack of serious swearing and sex. Regardless, all of the things I love about Miéville re here: unfettered imagination, linguistic wordplay, ample demonstration of his fierce intellect, unapologetic left-wing politics, and (of course) gigantic monsters. Relax and pour yourself a nice drink because this one’s a fun ride.

Related Posts: Book Review: "Roadside Picnic" by Arkady and Boris Strugatsky

Jon Lester, settling in?

Like many of you, i've been disappointed with Jon Lester. Which is why last night's performance came as a big surprise - it's been a while since Lester has been able to blank an opponent, even one as offensively inept as the Giants. What I was more surprised to learn, however, was that Lester's season hasn't actually been that bad, as the fine folks at Over the Monster point out. There's a lot of great information in the post, but here's what I found most interesting:

In [three starts in June], Lester allowed 17 runs in just 15-1/3 innings of work, while striking out 14 batters against 10 walks. Six of his 18 homers on the year came in just those three games -- his home run rate the rest of the year looks very similar to that of Lester at his peak. Again, we're not scrubbing them from the record, but Lester packed together a significant portion of his awfulness into one teeny stretch -- 23 percent of the runs he's allowed all season came in these three contests.

 So, while Lester hasn't had a complete return to his dominant past, he's still been a highly reliable piece in the Red Sox rotation. Even with those three poor starts on his record, he has a 103 ERA+ and 4.09 ERA, and is on pace for over 200 innings for the fifth time since he became a full-time starter back in 2008 -- those innings are significant by themselves, as a look back to last year reminds: only 31 starters logged at least 200 innings, out of the 150 starting slots available around the league, and of the 286 pitchers who started a game. Even if Lester were only average when all is said and done, there's huge value in that volume of average.

Lester used to be an ace. He's not anymore, but he's still settling into performing as an above average pitcher - when he's not losing control of his mechanics like he did during those three awful starts in June. We just need to recalibrate our expectations of him.

Ryan Dempster and Alex Rodriguez

Red Sox fans should be embarrassed by Ryan Dempster's intentional plunking of Alex Rodriguez last night.

I'm not sure that anyone saw this coming.  Dempster is generally known as a laid back, lighthearted guy.  While John Lackey was mouthing off about A-Rod's return to baseball, Dempster intelligently noted that even A-Rod has the right to play while he appeals his suspension.

But maybe, behind closed doors, the pitching staff convinced Dempster to do the job because he is the one that can most risk a suspension of his own.  Dempster is no late season pitcher, and this August he is particularly bad, with a 7.40 ERA through four starts.  Hell, it took him four pitches to plunk A-Rod.

Unfortunately, he also succeeded in getting the Yankees fired up.  They hit Dempster 9 times in 5-1/3 innings, including a towering home run by A-Rod.  With 3 hits last night, he was quite arguably the best player on the field last night.

So was it worth it?  The Red Sox benefitted from PED use during their two championship seasons.  Whether you think that's horrifying, or just part of baseball, it's more than a bit hypocritical to suddenly get huffy about A-Rod being on the field. 

More importantly, let's keep in mind that the Red Sox are only one game up in the AL East standings.  And if they fall behind the Rays, there is no guarantee of a wild card spot: the Orioles and the Athletics are both in heavy contention.  So, keep your eyes on the prize.  Let's play baseball, boys, not morality police.

A Celebration of the Pedroia Deal

As you know by now, Dustin Pedroia signed an extension with the Red Sox that will keep him playing in Fenway until he's 38. At first glance, this seems like another one of those absurd long-term baseball contracts that never seem to pan out at the end (A-Rod, Pujols, etc.). But there's a couple of mitigating circumstances that seem, to me, to make the deal a good one. They are:

• The compensation is a bell curve. Rather than the most expensive years of the contract coming at the tail end, Dustin will be making his most money in the middle of the deal (2017-2019) and only (only?) 13 and 12 mil respectively in 2020 and 2021. This becomes even more important when you take into account the endlessly escalating salaries for players. if Pedroia is an average player at the end of this contract, the Sox will most likely be paying for an average player.
• The Sox are averaging out the cost of his early years. Most arguments against these types of deals is that the teams are "paying for past performance. While i'm sympathetic to that argument, the fact is that Pedroia was a steal for many years. Fire Brand of the American League took at look at his 2008:
  

  In 2008 he had 213 hits, 54 doubles, 17 home runs, 20 stolen bases (and was only caught stealing once), and an outstanding .326/.376/.493 slash line. He posted an outstanding 6.9 WAR and was the starting second baseman for the AL All Star team. In addition to that, he took home the Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and MVP awards. All of this from a player who celebrated his 25th birthday during the season, and pocketed a salary of just $457,000.

  So we can see his bigger salaries as evening out the cost of his earlier years. Of course, there's no guarantee that Pedroia will continue to be the excellent player that he currently is. But even if he becomes average, the value of the contract can be averaged out by looking at how much of a bargain he was for many years.
  
• He'll be the face of the franchise. Currently, the only reason Dustin is not the main man on the Sox is the presence of one certain Large Father. But as impressive as Ortiz' late career resurgence has been, he won't be wearing the B for much longer and then Pedroia will be the main man on the team. Does this make sense from a baseball perspective? No. But from a business perspective - from the eyes of the owners who need to sell the team - it's a big deal to have a much-loved role model as the face of the franchise. I love the fact that "our guy" will be a 5'8" firecracker rather than some "perfect" player that has half of his personality.
  
• Attitude. As a fan, I love how Pedroia plays the game. With passion, spunk, and unrelenting effort. I love the fact that he has never once talked or complained about his contract or how much money he has made. I love the fact that despite he's one of the best players in the league, he actively pursued a new deal that made him a Sox for live, regardless of the money. As he put it himself:

It was a no-brainer to me. This was a place where they gave me an opportunity to play professional baseball. I want to make sure I do all I can to prove to those people who take a chance on me right. I'm not here to set markets or do anything like that. I want to make sure the team I'm on wins more games than the other team's second baseman. That's the way I look at it.

Anyways, that's just details. In the end, I just love watching the guy play. I'm excited to know that Pedroia will be in Boston until he retires - it's just no fun watching your favorite players go to other teams. So for the next 10 years, you'll find me wearing my #15 shirt and rooting for the little guy!

Grandeur Peak

While taking a trip to Utah last week, I decided to hustle my way up to the top of Grandeur Peak, using the steeper trail from the west.  Eric has generously encouraged me to call this activity "running."

I decided to hit the trail before dawn, figuring that nobody would be around to see this slow East Coaster make his way up the mountain.  But as I got out of my car and got my bearings, a couple of trucks pulled up, and some guys jumped out, started their watches, and began running toward the trail.  There was no chance I'd be keeping up.

I nearly did turn my activity into a real run, though, when I missed the Grandeur Peak trailhead and just kept jogging along the Bonneville Shoreline Trail.  After about five minutes, it hit me that this wasn't what a 29% grade was supposed to feel like.  I turned around and found my way to the single track trail that went straight up that mountain.

Within 1/2 mile I was huffing and puffing pretty hard.  I looked at my watch and found I was only 800 feet.  2,500 more feet to go.  I decided if I was going to make it to the top, I'd better stop and take more pictures along the way.  Luckily, 2013 has been an unusually wet year for Utah, and the trailside was covered in green and flowers, so I had plenty of opportunity.

A half mile from the the top, I spotted the two dudes who had beat me out the gate, now tearing down the trail toward me.  I stepped off the trail to let them pass, and they stepped off at the same time to let me pass.  "I don't like to let strangers see my fall on face," one of them offered.  "That's why I came alone," I countered.

Still closer to the top, I heard a click-click behind me, and turned around to see a guy speeding to toward me using mountaineering poles.  How long he had been following me, I had no idea.  I was grateful to take yet another break and let him pass.  I would see him again on his way down.

Other than some amazing views, the top of the peak was pretty unremarkable.  I lingered for a while, looking at Salt Lake City from a kilometer up, then turned back down the trail.

Coming back down didn't take much energy.  It was all about coordination, trying not to fall while letting gravity do the rest.  I did fall once (not on my face, luckily) but that's because I was trying to take a drink of water while running, instead flailing my arms around to the sides like a maniac.  Of course, I also took more pictures on the way down.

Other than the steep grade, the trail was not overly technical.  It had its rocky moments, and was grown over with scrub oak in a few place.  My Brooks Cascadias did a great job of biting into the loose trail and keeping me from sliding down the trail.   Impressively, I didn't see even the tiniest piece of trash on this popular trail.  We in the East could take a lesson from Utah.  (Now, if only Utahns would learn the meaning of switchbacks...)

Summer Running Gear

Here in the nation's capital, we've been having an unusually hot, humid summer.  It started the first weekend of June -- the weekend of The North Face Endurance Challenge -- when temperatures reached 91 degrees with an average humidity of 57%.  Since then, the temperatures have kept and rising, and so has the humidity, which often hovers in the 80-90% range during the day.

So, what running gear works in this kind of weather?

So far, I've been happy wearing the same shoes and socks.  My road shoe are Brooks Launch, and my trail shoes are Brooks Cascadia 8 and Inov-8 Roclite 295.  Drymax Lite trail running socks continue to be go to socks, whether I am on the road or the trails.  But what about the rest?

Salomon trail running shorts are absolutely the best shorts I've found.  They are super light, comfortable, don't bunch up, and don't chafe.

On top, I've taken a page from fellrnr and am wearing the Under Armour long sleeve shirt.  It evaporates sweat quickly, and it keeps the suns rays from beating directly on my skin.  Whenever there is even a slight breeze, it feels icy cool.  I've also been impressed by my North Face technical T-shirt with FlashDry technology.  It does what it says.

My Maui Jim Hot Sands sunglasses absolutely rock.  I wore them on the 50-miler and they never felt heavy or tiresome, never too dark or light, crystal clear vision the whole way.  Love them.

I have a love-hate relationship with headwear in general.  I'd rather not have anything on my head, but a visor does keep the sweat from dripping all over my face.   The Patagonia visor I wear has a nice wide headband, and comes in white, which can get a bit grungy looking, but reflects the heat.

On long runs I continue to use a Nathan HPL 020 race vest.  Super comfortable, very light, very breathable.  It never gets hot or sweaty on my back or underneath the straps.  I love having the multiple pockets up front.  No wonder its the favorite of ultra runners everywhere. My only complaint is the slightly leaky reservoir that came with it, which I've since swapped out with a Camelbak reservoir.

Questions about any of the above gear?  Favorites of your own you want to share?  Leave a comment!